Published in July, the study by statistics professor Arnold Barnett and student Jan Reig Torra, segments countries into three risk levels for accidents with commercial aircraft: lowest, intermediate and highest.
Brazil is classified in the second, intermediate group, alongside nations such as Chile, India, Mexico, South Africa, Hong Kong and South Korea. Countries with the lowest risk are the United States, Australia, Canada, China, countries in European Union, Japan, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Montenegro and the United Kingdom.
Carrying out a statistical analysis of fatal airline accidents that occurred worldwide between 2018 and 2020, the study examines the general risk of flying and the variation in this risk depending on the nationality of the airline.
“The study does not discuss why the existing risk pattern emerged”, says Barnett. “The objective is to present the risk pattern as a starting point for studies on its causes.” Among the accidents analyzed in the study, acts of terrorism would be disregarded.
All countries that are not classified in the first or second group are in the highest risk group. Nepal is a notable example, having recorded the highest number of fatalities (72) in plane crashes last year, according to Aviation Safety Network.
In 2020, Barnett published a similar study analyzing the period from 2008 to 2017, which already indicated a trend towards greater safety in air travel. However, he highlighted that less developed countries have not improved in aviation safety compared to more advanced countries, despite having greater potential for improvement.
In the current study, Barnett found that his concern was correct, with the lowest risk group made up exclusively of developed countries and not representing global south or African nations. Furthermore, Barnett also concluded that flying is globally six times safer today than it was 30 years ago and 22 times safer than it was 50 years ago.
“Flying has improved a lot over the years”, the expert told BBC News Brasil. “And given that this rate of improvement, of risk halving, has not slowed, we can be optimistic that it will continue in the coming years.”
Street: BBC News Brazil
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